‘Four More Years!’ – Has Trump done it again?
4th November 2020
In what is starting to look like a potential re-run of the 2000 Presidential Election, we appear to have a race that is too close to call. Once again defying the polls, Donald Trump has unquestionably done better than predicted, with bookmakers still undecided as to who will take a seat in the White House for another four years.
In the event that Trump does win, this looks like being the second consecutive Presidential election that the winner has not obtained the most votes and the third time this has happened in the last six elections. (Before then, it hadn’t happened since 1888).
So, what does this all mean for us in the UK and for investors in general?
Well, concerning the UK, we clearly remain in limbo until we understand exactly who we will be talking to going forward. Boris Johnson has intimated many times that there is a US/UK trade deal on the table. Whether this remains so if Biden wins is another matter, but at present, no more can be done with that until the Presidential result is confirmed. Therefore, will this delay affect our negotiating position with the European Union as we head to deadline day at the end of the year? This depends on how long the delay is, of course, but all we can do is wait and see.
Biden has already implied that there would be no trade deal if there is a hard Irish border. He also favours European unity. Does this naturally point to a Donald Trump win being better for the UK? Frankly, we don’t know.
However, that is the important point. Stock markets will simply do what stock markets do, irrespective of US Presidents. The likes of Mr Trump may generate short term movement with comments about this or that, but ultimately, history has shown two things.
Firstly, the performance of global stock markets is affected much more by matters outside the White House than inside. Whilst the general feeling is that a Republican President will offer a better return, the performance of the US stock market was better under Barack Obama’s first term than it has been under Donald Trump’s. However, that is surely much more to do with circumstances and timelines than anything else.
Secondly, and more importantly, irrespective of who lives in the White House, the most suitable circumstances for any form of long-term investment is a multi asset, risk rated portfolio. Our mantra continues to be ‘time in the market’, NOT ‘timing the market’.
Naturally, we will continue to have conversations with our Investment partners concerning the implications of both the result and any delay in this result, but we remain committed to long term multi asset risk rated portfolios.
As a nation, we are having to manage the implications of a worldwide pandemic at present, so surely the small matter of another bizarre US Presidential election over the pond is the least of our problems.
In the meantime, if you have any questions concerning this or any other matter, please do not hesitate to contact us.